BDSA’S TOP FIVE PREDICTIONS FOR 2024
The cannabis industry saw major changes in 2023. Aside from the continued expansion of adult-use access, the year also brought some of the first significant movement on federal cannabis reform we have seen in years. There are plenty of reasons to be optimistic about the prospects for legal cannabis in 2024; however, the industry still faces many challenges and unknowns. Thankfully, BDSA is no stranger to Cannabis Market Predictions; using our trended retail, consumer, and market forecast data to provide insights into what the future holds for the Cannabis Industry.
Before we dive into what to watch in 2024, let’s look back at some of the top cannabis trends from BDSA’s 2023 Predictions.
2023 Predictions Recap:
New market launches showcase the strength of Northeast and Midwest markets
Connecticut, Maryland, and Missouri all launched adult-use sales, underscoring the growing importance of the Midwest and Northeast regions.
- Connecticut has seen strong growth since launching adult-use sales in January 2023. BDSA forecasts total sales in the state to grow to $390MM in 2024, with $290MM coming from the adult-use channel.
- Monthly total sales in Missouri increased almost three-fold with the addition of adult-use in February 2023.
- The launch of adult-use sales in Maryland in July 2023 brought a +105% increase in monthly total sales.
- Ohio legalized adult-use in Nov 2023, is expected to launch sales in 2024, and will be one of the fastest growing markets out to 2027.
Extract category share remains flat across most BDSA-tracked markets, but some solventless form factors still present growth opportunities
BDSA cannabis sales data show that rosin’s share of total extract sales grew 45% between Q3 2022 and Q3 2023. Solventless products, particularly rosin, continue to show potential for growth across legal markets.
New York regulators did come through on their word by launching adult-use
in 2022, but the market remained constrained by several factors in 2023
State regulators made significant moves to address problems in the New York cannabis industry in 2023, but a limited retail landscape and stiff illicit competition have limited the market. BDSA forecasts New York to total $700MM in total sales in 2023.
There is still growth to come for the regulated cannabis market. Total US sales are forecast to grow +10% in 2024. That said, individual growth opportunities vary drastically by market and category, making a thoughtful, data-centric approach to the industry crucial for anyone looking to win in cannabis in 2024.
BDSA’s Top Five 2024 Cannabis Market Predictions
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1: The development and availability of intoxicating hemp products is a game-changer for the legal cannabis market that will have major implications, providing both unprecedented opportunity and unprecedented risk.
The 2018 Farm Bill paved the way for a massive growth in the hemp industry by legalizing products derived from legally-grown low-THC hemp. It did not take long for enterprising chemists to begin producing intoxicating cannabinoid products from legal hemp, leading to a deluge of hemp-derived intoxicating cannabinoids that can be produced, distributed, and sold with few of the legal headaches that the cannabis industry faces, nor the associated financial implications. Hemp-derived intoxicating cannabinoid products are already widely available through many channels including convenience stores, smoke shops, e-commerce marketplaces, and direct-to-consumer. With Minnesota leading the way, they are even sold in restaurants, breweries, bars, and some liquor stores and grocery stores.
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