Winning in Store: Up-Sell, Cross-Sell and Promotion Audio Transcript

Hello, everyone, and thank you so much for joining us today. My name is Kelly Nielsen. And I’m the Vice President of insights and analytics here at BDSA. I’m thrilled to be here to speak with everyone today, too, for a webinar winning in store and talking about details about upsell, cross sell, and promotional tactics.
Over the next 45 minutes or so we’re going to be covering a lot of information, we’re first going to start by just giving a very quick recap of the overall industry. And then we want to dive in and focus on how we go from understanding this high level macro understanding of the industry, and bring that into really tactical pieces and components to help you win in store. And then we’re going to close out with some exciting BDSA
predictions on what we can expect for upcoming 420.
as we’re going through, there is a comment box. If you have any questions, please feel free to type them in. We’ll try to get to a couple at the end. But we also do have a lot of content to go through today.
Okay, so before we jump into maybe some of the specifics about the overall market recap, I know there’s a lot of folks on the phone that may not have the fullest understanding of what BDSA does. So want to give a really quick recap that our goal is to provide the complete view of the global cannabinoid market. And that means understanding what’s going on today. And being able to project what’s going to happen in the future. And we have three key components to our overall solution suite that as we’re going through this, you will see information from each of these peppered throughout. But to provide a little bit of context on the first is our retail sales tracking. This is our This is our analysis of really understanding what is going on in the marketplace today. What is selling through retail stores? What are the products? What are the brands? What are the different product attributes? Where is it selling? When is it selling at what price point. And right now today, we have retail sales tracking available in eight specific states, as well as Canadian provinces. But I actually have some news to share that we will be rolling out more states in the near future. So more to come on the next page there.
The second is our market forecasts. So this is really an understanding of what we expect to happen in the overall cannabinoid market, both in the United States and Canada as well as globally. And what’s really exciting here is that first we project out to the next five years. So we’re able to provide some really cool perspective around where we expect the industry to go. But we also provide a level of granularity. So within the United States and Canada, we actually get down to the state or province level. And we also get down to the category level to understand and help organizations understand what’s going to happen in these in these markets, and how can they best be prepared for growth?
The third bucket is consumer insights. So this is a consumer survey that we released twice a year in order to understand what is the shifting perception of cannabis in the United States and Canada. And so we’re going into these markets, we’re understanding who is the consumer or one or one or attitudes of the cannabis markets or identifying consumers and non consumers. We’re able to size different industries, different categories, we’re understanding consumer behavior, consumption patterns, purchase habits, etc. I think about consumer insights is really being able to provide a rich color around. Why are we seeing what’s going on. And what’s really cool about consumer insights is that this is something that we’ve been doing for several years now. We actually recently completed wave seven. So we have a lot of trending information to be able to show how the cannabis perceptions word cannabis continue to evolve.
And so I mentioned that we have some exciting news to share as it pertains to additions to our solution suite. And so what we’re looking at on this page is our roadmap for new tools that we know we’ve been getting a lot of questions about some of these things. So we’re really excited, excited to share. And the first that actually is hot off the press is going to be launching in the next couple days. A couple things. The first is basket analytics. We’re going to be spending a lot of time today talking about basket analytics because this is a solution and a tool that really enables manufacturers and retailers alike to understand what’s going on in those consumer transactions and how to optimize for growth. So we’re spending a lot of time on that. We’re also releasing new retail sales tracking data in Florida and Michigan.
At the category level, so really exciting stuff there.
And then we have even more to come over the next couple months. So we have more information coming around CBD and wholesale pricing, we will also be releasing Pennsylvania and north and south California retail sales tracking information. And actually something I’m going to tease today, which I’m personally very excited about is thinking about brand availability and item velocity. So more to come there. And then as we look through the rest of the year, as we look into the fall, we’re focusing more on things like media activation, and financial services, and solutions to really help address questions in that particular space. As always, if you have any questions about any of this, feel free to reach out to me or any of your PTSA contacts.
And so since I’m going to be spending time talking about basket analytics, today, I just want to give a quick overview of what we’re evaluating when we’re talking about basket analytics. Because this is all about evaluating transactions that come in from our retail partners to be able to provide context of what’s going on in any given market. We’re evaluating things like how many transactions are coming through the store? And what does that look like, as time goes on? What are some of the trends that we’re seeing what’s in the basket, from a category perspective, from a brand perspective? And how do those things interplay. And then also thinking about things like pricing, how many units how many at what price points are going into this. And so if we have all of this understanding, it really enables retailers and manufacturers to, to do a couple key things. The first is just maximize your store and our brand sales because you understand more about the consumer, and the shopper behavior. It also allows the enablement of creating promotional activities or partnerships and thinking about things like cross selling, because you understand the interactions across brands or interactions across categories, and also upselling. So something we’re going to look at today is, for example, what happens and what does it mean? And how should you strategically think about a situation where the overall basket sizes down and the number of items in the basket are down, but the average price per unit is up? What does that mean for you.
And ultimately, all of this also allows the development of strong sales presentations to understand where your brand stands relative to the competition.
Without further ado, I would like to jump on into a quick reminder of when we’re jumping into the cannabis industry here, what is going on, it’s definitely been quite the hectic market in the past couple months. So want to ground us in the overall size of the industry.
So first, what you’re looking at here is our global legal cannabis forecast. And I have this specifically here for our US and Canada medical and adult use markets. And I think the first thing I want to call out to the left hand side of the screen is that the US legal cannabis market closed the year at about $17.6 billion. And just to put that into context, that was about a 48% increase year over year, a lot of big traction going on. And something you’ll hear me talk about as we go through this section is where that probe is coming from, because it’s really coming from two places. The first is market expansion. So in 2020, or excuse me, 2019, we saw new states like Michigan and Illinois really come into their own so contributed a lot of growth there. But we also see an expansion of consumers. So the penetration of consumers who are using cannabis is continuing to grow even in the most mature markets. So that’s really exciting.
And based on that, in that that trend we’re seeing with new states coming online new markets, and that continued development and increasing penetration and consumers, we expect continued growth through 2026. So within the US market, specifically, we expect the size of the market to be about 41 $41.1 billion by 2026. And the Canadian market really be driven by adult use reaching about $6.1 billion.
And when it comes to markets, you see the top five US state markets over there on the right hand side of the screen, California, Colorado, Florida, New York and New Jersey, New York is definitely a hot button issue right now. So I definitely have a slide on that too, to make sure that we at least cover off on it in this conversation.
And so I mentioned in the previous slide that about three quarters are that consumption continues to expand and just to provide some perspective, when we’re talking about fully legal states today, about three quarters of adults are bought into consuming cannabis that means that they’re either already consumers, so about 43% or, or they are open to consuming cannabis even if they don’t today, and that’s about 29 30% of the population.
And so that’s really exciting.
Because that we continue to see this expand every time we’re conducting a survey.
And to bring this to life, I mentioned that this this consumer penetration continues to grow even in the most mature markets. So what you’re looking at here, level one states are what we consider those fully legal states, level two states are medical only states.
But whether we’re looking in aggregate at total level one or level two, or going deeper into, say, the Canadian market, or new or existing are pretty established markets like Massachusetts, California, Colorado, we’re seeing the past six months, consumers continues to expand. And that’s really exciting. I do have to give a shout out to Colorado with a penetration of past six month consumers has hit close to 50%. So 48% of consumers claimed to be claimed to be past six month consumers of cannabis. And so that penetration is relatively high, especially when you think or put that into context against something, say, the alcohol beverage industry where penetration tends to teeter around 60 to 65%. So really exciting there.
And so I mentioned, I would remiss to go through a an overview of what’s going on in the industry without commenting on New York, because fresh off the presses this week is that New York has legalized marijuana for adult use. And so what does that mean, we’ve identified that New York is expected to be the fourth biggest market in the next couple of years. And so right now, within 2021, it is medical only sales, we’re expecting it to be about $150 million. And I want to call that out, because our expectation is that even though they legalized adult use cannabis,
this week, we expect that product will be available around this time next year, that it’ll take some time for that that state to come online. So that’s why that 2021 size of industry, about $150 million, which is still up from about $111 million this past year. But from here, we expect to see really substantial growth, we expect that first year to be about seven and a half million dollars, and just continue to expand up to about 2.5 billion by 2026. And again, that puts it as the fourth biggest market for cannabis in the United States. And one key thing that New York has going for it is the two thirds of the population in that state already either consume or are open to consuming cannabis. And so if you look at that percentage, acceptors folks who aren’t purchasing today, but will be open to the market really is primed for growth and penetration.
Okay, so now let’s jump into all the nitty gritty, really excited, because you know, coming out of this particular, this this prior section, we can see that there’s a lot of growth in this market, we know that there’s a lot of traction, we know that there’s a lot of momentum. And so how can you or in general brands and retailers alike capitalize on the attraction that we’re seeing in the market with really tactical in store activation.
And I want to start by saying that, you know, we recognize that there’s a lot of different strategies to succeed in the marketplace. And so what you’re looking at on this slide is the top brands in the total United States market that is covered by our retail sales tracking, analysis. And what’s really interesting here is those top three brands, the top three, top three brands in the entire country. So if you like cresco rhythm ronto, the approach there is really a multi state operation. And these products are available in multiple states. And they’ve had success in breaking into these markets and really being able to expand their footprint into those multiple markets. However, you still see a lot of brands on this list that have been successful or make the top list by only being available in a single state or single market. So raw garden, for example, is only available in California, where if you look down this list, things like timeless vapes, which is only available in Arizona, and then you get into things like Sierra naturals Pacific stone heavy hitters. And so as we’re talking a big portion of what we’re going to talk about in this strategy is thinking about where to distribute how to distribute and multi state and single state there’s different dynamics that need to be taken into consideration in those circumstances. Another component is category expansion. So as we think about brands development, how can brands think about synergies either across categories and equities and understanding their consumer to expand and find whitespace.
This brings us to the primary topic of our discussion today which is all about winning in store
And so we’re going to cover six what I’m calling lessons about what we’ve learned about the cannabis industry really diving into retail sales, tracking the consumer information, our size of industry understanding and basket analysis to understand what it takes to win. And so we’re going to cover a couple key things. The first is about making sure that you understand when consumers are engaging in your category. It’s been a weird couple of years. What does actual seasonality look like in this in this industry? And how can you capitalize on it, understand what is driving changes, because different changes in the marketplace require a tailored strategy, recognize the importance of availability, as I mentioned on the previous slide, we’re going to talk about distribution and its importance there, understanding your consumer unpacking cross category dynamics, which whether you’re a retailer or manufacturer are really important. And then thinking about not just maybe month over month, but what’s actually happening on a day by day level within dispensaries.
So I want to start by thinking about this high level perspective of understanding when consumers are engaging in your category. And so what you’re looking at here is a seasonality evaluation, pre 2020. So pre COVID-19 pre lockdown. And, and at that time, we actually had a pretty robust analysis across the states that had that had pretty developed cannabis markets. So markets like California, Colorado, Oregon, Nevada. And when we take a look at what’s going on throughout the year, you see that there’s a couple key peaks. And the first I want to call out is in March, which for many of these states became Spring Break time. And that’s really when you start to see the first uptick and engagement after the winter holidays.
But then as time goes on, in states, especially those that have more pronounced seasons, and probably have more seasonal tourism versus all year round tourism, such as Colorado and Oregon, you’re seeing more dramatic peaks during the summer between those months of June to September. If you look at a state like Nevada, which is the yellow line, I think I actually found this pretty fun to look at that it has its own
unique seasonality curve, likely because the tourism schedule is a little bit different when you look back at that state in particular.
And so when we think about that particular timeframe, what’s really important to also understand is that within those months where we’re seeing a lot of those peaks, we have some of the busiest times of the year within that timeframe. Because we know that folks are purchasing cannabis more frequently, or have bigger baskets during some of these holidays that happened during that timeframe. So what I want to call out, which we’re going to spend a lot of time talking about here at the end of our conversation is 420. But just to provide a sneak peek, we typically see that on and around the days before 25th daily Sales can be two to three times higher than normal, it differs a little bit by market. But really important to have that contacts to understand how you should be thinking about your brand strategy and in store strategy. We also have holidays, such as the Fourth of July and the days that round there or dab day, Labor Day. And then to a lesser degree Memorial Day. But each of these is seeing some sort of peak an uptick in consumer engagement in the cannabis space.
And so all of this is thinking about a normal year. And so I want to just pause for a second to like, okay, where are we because I don’t think we can continue a conversation about seasonality and engagement without acknowledging that 2020 was not a normal year when it comes to consumer engagement in that category in the space. And so what you’re looking at here is our overall seasonality index, looking at 20 2020 specifically.
And you know, the first thing to call out is obviously April in March really saw a dramatic decrease in overall sales because of stay at home orders that were implemented. And certain states were hit more negatively than others, namely Massachusetts, which completely shut down a wide range of retailers, and Nevada which really suffered more from the lack of tourism compared to other states. But what is really positive is that we continue to see steady growth in all states, starting in June. And then we saw an additional little bump around the December holidays, which is normal. We do tend to see that the Thanksgiving weekend and Christmas and New Year’s weekend do tend to be some of the highest sales times for the industry. So all really positive. And all of this really led to substantial growth across the board for several of our key retail sales tracking states. So Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, Oregon, all up double digits
which is really exciting right?
But the one thing or this is this actually brings me to my next lesson.
Because if your growth is coming from things like more transactions at any given retailer, bigger baskets, or people just putting more items in a basket are spending more per basket, are they do they have fewer units or more units are the items lower price or higher priced. Understanding these things can help you again, either retailers or manufacturers really tailor our strategy to grow in these particular stores.
And so what you’re looking at on this page, and I’m really excited about this, because this is the first view, you are getting our basket analysis. But what you’re looking at on these pages is two different markets. So I wanted to select a market that is considered more established. So Colorado, and a market that is new. So Illinois, you know, new to the adult use landscape and 2020. And what you’re looking at here, the black bar is the dollars per basket or overall basket size. And then the purple bar is the average daily transactions. And so what’s really interesting here is that you see in both of these states, that in q1 and q2 of 2020, we saw
relatively lower overall daily transactions, but higher overall basket size, especially in q2, which really isn’t that surprising, because that’s when folks were starting to stack up, and really
the q1 beginning to stack up stay at home orders etc.
After that, as we get into Q3 summer went on, we begin to see a steep drop off in the overall size of the basket, and an increase in the average daily transactions. This is when folks were getting more comfortable being able to go back to stores, and those sorts of things. But what has been great is we have continued to see very clearly consistency as we come into Q1 of this year. And one thing I do want to call it is we have seen this similar trend across nearly all US states and Canadian provinces.
But this is really important in understanding this because this is what allows you to leverage a strategy tailored to this consumer behavior. So let’s look at Colorado for a second. So to put those numbers on the prior page into more specificity here. In Colorado, when we compare q4 of 2020 versus q4 of 2019, we saw that the average daily transactions were up 48%. But the average basket size number of items were down. But the average price per item was up. So how do you unpack all this different movement. And the first thing I want to call out is that if you’re thinking let’s start with transactions, if you’re thinking about transactions being nearly 50%, higher year over year, that has a couple of implications. If you’re a retailer, it means that it’s all about figuring out how to bring consumers or shoppers use me to your store versus competitive stores. And you have to be prepared for traffic. Whether that means from a logistical standpoint, having the right amount of bud tenders and a right amount of folks to be able to help folks check out and ask questions and answer questions you need to be prepared for that. But as a manufacturer, you want to be where the shoppers are. And you want to make sure that you are leveraging that heightened transaction of that heightened traffic, those heightened transactions. In order to drive awareness and brand recognition for your brands. It’s an opportunity to get your brand in front of more people.
And then let’s take a look moving down this list as we think about what’s in the basket. And this this trade, overall basket size, number of items and price per item.
If you’re a retailer and you’re looking you’re thinking probably a couple of different things. The first is how can I drive basket sizing quantity. And so there’s probably some promotional tactics that should be considered in order to either bolt this coming across category promotion in order to bump up the size of that overall basket. Also make sure that you’re considering optimizing price tiers within your store. This is all about store. So assortment, making sure that you’re not leaving money on the table and making sure that that you have price tiers at a range of different price point because people are willing to pay more per price per item for the right item. If you’re a manufacturer, it means you want to capture attention fast, because people are putting fewer items in their basket. You want to make sure that your item is one of them. So you want to capture their attention. You want to be relevant to them. And then it could be opportunity for potentially cross promotion. So thinking about if there’s either other categories or other brand partners that you could partner with in order to drive bundles or think about how you can optimize that overall price.
And really understand consumer willingness to pay for any given item. So really unpacking This can help make sure that your overall strategy of brand or retailer is tailored to that shopping behavior.
I also want to call out that magnitude matters. And so let’s come back to Colorado versus Illinois. So in those past couple slides, we started with daily average transactions and basket size. And we saw similar trend. Right after q2, we saw daily transactions
go down and we saw a basket size or excuse me, we saw daily transactions go down in basket size go
all the way around. Let me like go back to the slide. Make sure I’m speaking about this appropriately. Yes. Okay, basket size decreased, number of transactions increased. But one thing you might not have noticed right off the bat, is that if you actually compare the Colorado and Illinois markets on things like the number of daily transactions and basket size, they’re dramatically different. So the number of daily transactions is two times as high in Illinois, it’s about two and a half, the basket size is about two and a half times bigger. But number of dispensaries is dramatically different. So Colorado has over 500 open dispensaries, whereas Illinois has fewer than 100. And so the overall size of the market, despite higher daily transactions and basket size in Colorado is substantially higher.
And this is really important because for two reasons. The first is if you are a retailer and you’re thinking about expanding markets, really important to understand how these different markets behave and react and what is your competition. From a retailer from a brand perspective. This means that the more dispensaries there are, the more important is to get your product in more management’s more stores. Because this brings us to lesson three, which is drive availability wherever possible.
I understand that there’s some states out there where you know, fully vertically integrated a lot harder to distribute your product across the board. But where it all possible, we see direct, direct relationship between overall brand sales and availability. And for anyone who comes from a consumer packaged goods background, I think from day one, it’s drilled into your head that distribution is king. the cannabis industry is no different in this circumstance. So what you’re looking at on this page is the top
Illinois chocolate brands ranked from highest to lowest in terms of overall dollar sales. And we are rolling out a new availability metric where we will able to put into context how available are these different brands relative to other brands in their category. And you can see here that those top four brands Incredibles nature’s grace, wellness, core Kiva all are the most widely distributed chocolate brands within the state. So distribution absolutely matters in the cannabis category.
From here, what’s really important to understand is your shopper and your consumer.
Excuse me.
So let’s go back to Colorado for a second. We know that in Colorado when we talk to consumers, 60% of consumers tell us that they prefer inhalable products. And we also know that those consumers who prefer inhalable are among the most involved consumers in the category because they’re telling us 70% of them consumed inhalable daily, they spend 43% more dollars per month, and they spent $15 more per trip and so we know that they’re really involved consumer.
But it’s
also where it’s really important to understand the mean state of each of those different products, because they may have different motivation when it comes to each of those specific product forms. For the number one recorded benefit for inhale doubles, is to be relaxed and be mellow. Whereas for topicals is to relieve pain in edibles, it is to sleep better.
And all of this information can really be leveraged in order to provide color and understand again, the why behind what we’re actually seeing in market. And so what you’re looking at here is by category, basket size, and penetration of those baskets, meaning how often is that basket occurring in the marketplace. And there’s a couple things I want to call out. I also did include category share along the bottom.
And so let’s talk about this inhalable consumer who is the most involved in most dynamic cat era involves consumer in the category if you think about concentrates versus flour versus pre rolls.
Each of these is bringing in substantial volume in different ways. So concentrates is a mix between high purity
Have a basket in addition to having among the highest basket size. So folks that are buying concentrates have higher overall basket sizes, which concentrates themselves tend to be among the more expensive product forms, or things like flour, which is really overall a, we’re seeing that basket penetration is substantially high or something like pre roll, which still is able to demand 7% of the overall dollar, if you’re in this space is really driven by the penetration of lower basket items.
Really interesting to be able to dive into the category level just for reference, we can actually go deeper than this uncategories as well. So we can break down edibles looking specifically at beverages versus chocolates versus candy, etc.
But this is really important to understand the category dynamics, because this allows you to manage your assortment and portfolio across categories. So the way to read this chart is from left to right. And so for example, anytime concentrates is in a cart 2% of those carts are baskets all
hidden involve consumers, they’re not only opting in to the edibles, or excuse me, the inhalable, the 14%, or 10%, or of those baskets actually also include edibles in understanding this cross purchasing cross shopper behavior is really important. Because if you are a retailer, this is the information that’s going to allow you to have the right assortment, we can actually get down to the brand level so we can understand if consumers have Brand X in their basket, what other brands are they buying, but it gives you the opportunity to have the right products on hand.
It additionally gives you the opportunity to think about cross promotion or insert in store shelving. So what should the layout of your store look like to make sure that you have complimentary products next to each other. And then if you’re a manufacturer, this is all about whitespace and innovation opportunities because you can begin to see where your brand
inflow of what’s going on week over or day over day within a week. And This to me is particularly interesting. And what you’re looking at here is an index of sales to an average by day of the week. And so I think the first couple things that I’ll call out is that Friday and Saturday are by far the biggest dollar sales days of the week. Probably unsurprising to folks out there who are involved in the retail space.
I think what’s really interesting though, is that Tuesday’s of all days are the one that they tend to underperform. So they have tend to have sales of about 89% of the rest of the week. And when we take a look at what’s driving that so Friday and Saturday, you see a combination of higher traffic, higher transactions, and higher overall dollars per basket. But something else that is really interesting is that assortment matters and assortment differs per week. So for example, in the Colorado market,
of the different dollar, or have dollar sold 19% of those are based on or 19% of those come from edibles on a Friday. Whereas only 12% of dollars come from edibles on a Tuesday. So that means a couple things. It means if you’re a retailer, think about the assortment that you’re bringing forward and making sure that you have product available different days of the week. If you are a manufacturer and you’re thinking about how to get product to stores, really keep in mind of trying to get product in time for any sort of weekend rush as much as possible.
Okay, so this actually wraps up our section around winning in store. So just as a really quick recap, thinking about identifying when consumers are engaging in your category again, think about that seasonality and think about those months of time a year within your market, where there might be more people that are interested in consuming in the cannabis space. understand what’s driving changes, is it higher basket size, is it more baskets is it dollars per basket, understanding that allows you to tailor your strategy. recognize the importance of availability, distribution matters, even in the cannabis space. Make sure that you understand your cop chopper or your consumer in order to understand those motivations because understanding those motivations allows you to unpack cross category dynamics. And then again, consider this weekly Evan flow of not just this macro level of year over year, month over month, but getting as nitty gritty as day over day.
So with all this said, I want to jump into some for 20 predictions. And I want to first lay the groundwork of where we’re coming from here. So what
We’re looking at on the left hand side of the screen is our 2019 for 20 analysis. So we saw that dollar sales in 2019, in some states actually reached three times what a normal day would look like. But there’s caveats to that. The first is that it was on a Saturday, which from our very last section, we know that being on a Saturday makes a much bigger difference, potentially, than even the holiday itself. And then it’s also obviously pre COVID. Pre lockdown, we have the opportunity to have these outdoor engagements or be able to celebrate.
But what’s really interesting, and honestly, I did not expect to see this as much as we saw, because 2020 when we take a look at for 21st, it was on a Monday. And then obviously, it was at the height of lockdown across the country. Despite that, we still see pretty substantial uptick in the overall dollar sales versus an average April day. So versus an average April day. On the day of 420. itself, we see sales as high as about
about two times that of a normal day in April. But what is also exciting because it was on a Monday, we saw growth throughout the weekend before. And so if you look at the 17th and 18th, in particular, which are that Friday and Saturday leading up to 420, we see an increase across several markets. I think one call out that I will make sure to mention here is that it’s not equal by state. And so if you look here, where we saw the biggest increases, Maryland, Oregon, California, Colorado, we’re all where we’re seeing some of those biggest increases in sales around 420, especially, or even in 2020.
Whereas markets such as Nevada, which was hit pretty heavily from lack of tourism, and then a state like Illinois, which probably doesn’t have as much of the deep seated history associated with worth wanting.
When we take a look at those dates, though, we do tend to see that not only is the overall dollar sales increasing, it’s coming from some interesting places. The first is that we’re seeing this really come from an increase in the number of units sold. So we typically see about 25% more growth in unit sales over dollar sales. So for example, if you were to see about a 200% increase in dollar sales, we would expect to see about a 250 increase in unit sales.
And part of the reason for that is that we do actually see a decrease in the average retail price of this timeframe of about 15%. And that’s really an account of promotion. So we know that during that timeframe, retailers and manufacturers are planning, price discounts, buy one get one sorts of promotions to build an overall basket. And we’re seeing that come through in pricing. I think another thing that’s really interesting about for 20 of years past is that we did see similar trends in pricing and units in both 2019 and 2020.
And so I think the implication there are I’m sorry, one more slide before I get to the overall implication predictions is taking a look at what we’re seeing across categories. So typically, historically, we’re seeing most categories impacted by 420 surges relatively similarly. So we’re seeing substantial growth across your big categories, such as flour concentrates, pre roll edibles. So whether you’re manufacturer or retailer, I would say in this circumstance, be prepared and make sure your product is available and make sure that you have the right assortment in order to accommodate this sort of growth.
And that brings us to our for 20 2021 predictions. So the first thing I would say, you know I teed this up coming into this is like Dude, I actually think that 420 is going to show growth in 2021, especially because it’s on a Tuesday this year. And we know that Tuesday is one of the lowest daily sales of the week. But if we learned anything from 2020, it’s that folks are resilient. And we still do expect to see growth and an uptick in sales and dollars in transactions around 420. However, we do expect it to start the weekend before so the big days are probably actually going to be April 16 and 17, which are the Friday and Saturday before for 20 this year.
We expect that increase to be bigger than 2020. You know, we are still in a pandemic. There are still social distancing orders in place, but activities are on the rise. So we do expect that increase to continue. We expect a higher impact in what we would consider to be those legacy states or those that are not negatively impacted by lack of tourism. So Nevada may not reach its former glory and these years are currently that it has had the opportunity to completely build back
tourism industry. And again, like I mentioned, we did not see a big uptick last year in Illinois.
as big of an uptick this year, either.
Be prepared for those price discounts and increases of traffic transactions units, make sure that you have product on hand to accommodate the demand. And when we talk about this product and assortment, make sure that you’re thinking about all categories because we see that the overall contribution to volume or overall contribution to sales is relatively in line with what we would consider fair share for each of those individual categories.
So with that, I hope you found this extremely helpful. Thank you again, so much for taking time to talk with me today on this. If you have any questions at all, there’s
feel free to reach out to either me or your BDSA contact. We’re excited about basket analysis, and we will absolutely keep track on our predictions of 420.
And let’s see.
Thank you all so much.