The State of Legal Cannabis Markets Webinar





State of Legal Cannabis Markets Promotion



Video Transcription


Troy Dayton: Welcome everybody. It’s really a joy to be here to go through the findings of our 7th edition of the State of Legal Cannabis Markets. It’s an interesting change. We’ve changed it from the State of Legal Marijuana Markets to the State of Legal Cannabis Markets. So much has changed in how we talk about this and so changing that name is indicative of that. So Arcview has been producing this report since 2011 and a few years ago, we partnered up with BDS Analytics to really expand the depth of the data and the team that could really dig into this. As the market grew, there was more and more that needed to be done and so partnering with BDS, which has the deepest and most thorough data on the sector really made a lot of sense and we had a real joy working with Roy Bingham and Tom Adams and Liz and Chris and the whole team at BDS, super impressive what we’ve been able to accomplish together.

Adult use has now taken over medical-legal cannabis spending


Troy Dayton: All right, so this shows what everyone’s been waiting for for years, which is that the adult use worldwide legal spending has now overtaken medical for the first time. And this is largely driven by California and Canada’s markets, them coming online, they’re the fifth and six largest economies in the world, all at the same time coming online. So that’s really, really important. Despite the fact that California had a pretty rocky start. We went from 2017, 18 million people, adults living in an adult use state where they could go into a store and buy cannabis. We went from 18 million to 91 million adults living in that space so almost a 7x growth in the total potential market available to go purchase cannabis. And the big change here, the reason you see such a big shift in one year is in California, the passage of adult use in the way that they implemented essentially pretty much got rid of the medical market and it’s probably the only time we’ve ever seen the size of an overall market dropped from year to the next because it was such a rocky transition and a rocky start.


Global legal cannabis spending by continent


Troy Dayton: So that gives you some context of where we’re at. Let’s go to the next slide, which will show us the overall growth of the market across the world, this shows global spending internationally and you can see that we’ve got a 24.4 compound annual growth rate between 2018 and 2024. Really impressive. Between 2017 and 2018 though, we had the smallest growth we’ve had since Colorado legalized adult use so only a 20% growth and it’s funny for anybody that’s ever been in any other sector to say it’s been a slow year being at 20% growth, shows what an amazing opportunity the cannabis sector is. But look at 2018 and 2019 and so far that all indicators are at work, we’re going to hit this, we’re going to see a 38% growth between 2018 and 2019. We’re going to see a very, very big jump and you’ll see that that re-acceleration looks likely going forward. One of the things that I think stands out the most about this particular chart is that North America is taking up such an enormous lion’s share of the current market and the future growth of the market and you see everybody else is just down there at the bottom.

Troy Dayton: And for as much talk as there is about what’s happening internationally it’s still, even by 2024, a pretty small portion of the market. And when you consider that only 5% of the world’s population lives in North America, that’s when you start thinking going into 2040, and 2050, and 2060, what kind of growth curves we’re going to see even after North America goes through what it’s going to go through politically. Will this transition into all the other markets? I suspect it will.


2018 US Legal cannabis status


Troy Dayton: Let’s move to the next slide and what we’re going to see here is the overall map here and kind of the political progress has been tremendous. In 2018, we added two adult use states, Michigan and Vermont, and then of course last week we also added Illinois, which isn’t reflected on this because it’s a 2018 thing but that’s worth pointing out as well and then we also added three medical states, Missouri, Utah and Oklahoma to the list.

Troy Dayton: And I serve as chair of the board of the Marijuana Policy Project so got a chance to really work pretty deeply on a lot of these and see it from the inside and it’s just incredible to see the shift in progress as we were able to work, particularly in Michigan, Vermont, Utah, Illinois on those projects. And then of course, CBD now, with hemp bill passing, that changes everything and we’ll hear a little bit more about that from Roy here in a second. But one thing I want to point out here is the growth. So in 2018, we wound up with 11 adult use states if you include DC and 34 medical states but we are projecting that by 2024, we are going to see 21 adult use states and all of the states being medical use. And that will have a huge impact on the growth trend going forward. In particular, in just the next few years seeing New York, New Jersey, Maryland, Arizona, Connecticut, Ohio, Vermont, New Mexico, Rhode Island, all of those states in just the next few years coming online and starting to post numbers. But even we look at that big growth chart, a lot of them do not include much from those states because it takes a few years after it passes before the market actually comes online and before it matures. So most of that growth that you’re seeing is actually coming from states that have already passed legalization.

Troy Dayton: So with that, let me pass it off to Roy to talk about the biggest story of last year and into this year, which is CBD. It seems like out of nowhere, CBD has just become utterly ubiquitous and Roy is here to tell us about that.


US CBD Spending Licensed Dispensaries - Epidiolex


Roy Bingham: Thank, Troy. It may be that Washington’s biggest moves in 2018 didn’t actually involve legal cannabis perse at all but really about cannabinoids. There was, of course, the FDA’s decision to approve Epidiolex and that of course but cannabinoids into pharmacies and pharmaceutical companies into the medical cannabis industry in a sense. Of course what we’re showing here is our projected growth of CBD in the licensed dispensary channel compared to the pharmaceutical channel. And the licensed dispensary channel is already rather substantial as you can see with about a two billion dollar market in 2019 but growing to more than a five billion dollar market by 2024. And during that same period of time, primarily driven by Epidiolex. We expect to see pharmaceuticals growing to be another two and a half billion dollar market opportunity.


Dispensaries Created the CBD Phenomenon


Roy Bingham: But that’s just the tip of the iceberg as we go to the next slide, please. Because what this illustrates is that in licensed dispensaries, CBD, which you can see CBD products, products that featured heavy amounts of CBD and promoted the CBD content in those products were only 2.5% of sales in licensed dispensaries in 2014. As you can see, those steadily grown to 11% of sales in the first quarter of this year. This is a product of an exhaustive review of our GreenEdge™ retail sales tracking.

Roy Bingham: And so you can see that the fastest growing subsegment within the industry are high CBD products, whether they be in the foremost flower that is high CBD flower, topicals, edibles, or concentrates.


US Dispensaries High CBD Product Mix


Troy Dayton: Now moving onto the next slide, we think about what does that really mean in terms of product mix? In 2014, of course flower was a major component of sales. In 2018, we have a much more even distribution of products with concentrates and edibles having grown substantially as well as pre-rolled product and topicals. And in the case of CBD or high CBD products, topicals, about 80% of topicals feature CBD as an important component and edibles as well are also improving in terms of their share over CBD products. So a lot is being driven by what’s going on in the dispensaries. But of course now, we’re in a whole new world as we move to the next slide.


US CBD Spending Licensed Dispensary vs General Retail


Roy Bingham: We’re into this new world of CBD or cannabinoid products and CBD is the main one but let’s remember, there are hundreds of cannabinoids, excluding THC that are likely to emerge in the general market with the passage of the farm bill and the improving legal picture for companies participating in this area. And so right now, CBD containing products are primarily sold in dispensaries. They represent about two thirds of sales in 2018 and only one third is in all of the other general retail channels, and there are so many of them, aren’t there, of course as food, drug, mass stores. They’re health and beauty stores, they’re eCommerce sales, they’re pet and health food stores.

Roy Bingham: In fact, there are a dozen different channels in which cannabinoid products are now being sold and we expect that that market will grow even faster than the CBD, high CBD content products sold in the licensed dispensary channel to the point where it flips and by 2024, you’ll actually have 70% of cannabinoid sales in the general retail channels. So it’s an exciting new world. We’re talking about a 45 billion dollar U.S. market in 2024. So yes, we said global legal cannabis will be 40 billion by 2024 but U.S. cannabinoids will be 45 billion by 2024, but that’s just the total cannabinoid market.


Cannabis investments wake up wall street


Troy Dayton: So what an interesting time for investment in the space. As we saw, you see this on October 2017, you see this constellation investment and the stocks just went nuts for it. And then you see as we go along, it gets a little tripped up by the coal memo being rescinded, which took away the memo protection and you also see that California has a rocky start, that impacts the stocks. And this is a new cannabis ventures stock index and it’s down about 54% on the year.

Troy Dayton: But even with all of that, most people feel like a lot of these stocks are overvalued, even still with some of the drop off because of the ratios between revenue and market cap are still pretty wild and so what you’re seeing is a lot of the big winners, which are mostly the MSOs, the multi-state operators, these are people with lots of different licenses, and then you have the Canadian companies. So that’s also part of the larger trend is that in early 2018, it was all of the big Canadian companies and then you start seeing that shift towards the end where all of the excitement is around the U.S. MSOs. Let’s switch to the next one, the next slide to talk a little bit about the raises and the MNA which relates to that.


Cannabis investments annual capital raised


Troy Dayton: So what we see is this move to the states with the MSOs and then you also have a big shift to the MSOs are now diversifying through getting into brands and also in the ancillary businesses and so I’ll show a little bit about that in a second with some of the highlights. But, let’s take a look at the flood of new capital. Investment is actually the fastest growing place in the cannabis sector. Right? We’ve never seen a growth curve like that. We’re talking 4X increase from 2017 to 2018. That’s more than all money invested between 2014 and 2017. Really, really impressive and 2019 is doing pretty remarkably, remember this … These are only through April 26th of this year. So if you extrapolate that out, we’re going to have a very strong year in 2019 as well. It’s kind of a new world when it comes to investment.


Cannabis top investment M&A


Troy Dayton: Take a look at some of the M&A activity and some of the big stories from a company standpoint, that are coming. David, next slide, there we go. So, I think it’s a little slow on coming through. But, what we see here is a lot of these big M&A transactions, and you’ve seen them kind of in three different areas. One is when they you know, are scaling by making an acquisition to grow a core business. So we saw that with the Aurora Med Relief merger. And then you also see them doing it through diversifying more geographically, like Aphria buying Latam Holdings. So, people are going globally, and then the last one is where they’re going into new sectors. So, such as Canopy Growth buying Ebbu which is an intellectual property around hemp and other formulations.

Troy Dayton: So, that is a trend that I suspect is going to continue. We’re also seeing a ton of big investments. So earlier in the year we saw Gotham Green make the largest investment in a private company in the space, into Flocanna of over $100 million dollars. And then just a few months later, we saw Pax, the vaporizer company, get a $400 million dollar investment. Pretty remarkable. Then you saw Altria invest billions of dollars into Kronos. Then the one that everyone’s sort of talking about at this point is Canopy striking a deal to buy acreage upon the end of federal prohibition, which I suspect is going to be an increasing trend of companies striking deals contingent upon law change.

Troy Dayton: So, this is going to be an interesting opportunity. Then also, it’s worth noting, Arcview’s next event is July 17th through 19th in Illinois, which is the latest cannabis state and we’re going to have Mike Steinmetz from Flocanna giving a keynote there. So, if you’re qualified, accredited investor, we’d love to hear from you.

Troy Dayton: With that, I would like to pass it back to Roy and Tom to really take a deeper dive into our methodology behind these numbers. Lots of people through numbers out there and, but you’ve got to look under the hood, because a lot of them are just trying to get headlines. It’s really great to be able to look under the hood and see how do we actually come to this, and what is the methodology. Roy and Tom, take it away.


Cannabis Market Lifecycle in Colorado


Roy Bingham: Thank you Troy. Yeah, so one of the things that we’ve done is we’ve looked at the life cycle of the more mature markets and we’ve looked at the penetration rates of course, and the rate of consumption by individual consumers. Here we’re looking just briefly at the lifecycle in Colorado, where you had this early phase, we call it inception, where you had a medical only market. It was growing at a fair rate, 45% in 2012 and then 12% in 2013. But it was only a few hundred million dollar market.

Roy Bingham: Then of course we had the advent of adult use, and all of a sudden the market basically doubled and then grew up 46% in 2015 and 31% in total in 2016. Now, the medical market was basically flat during that period and has since declined materially and now, we’re looking at 2018 only about 2% growth in Colorado. So we’re in the maturity phase. But it is insights like this data that guide us as we model out all of the states, all of the provinces and the 14 countries globally that we believe will be major markets. So, we take data from states like Colorado. We can look at the average consumption, the percentage of the population that’s become a frequent consumer, the percentage of the population that consumers on only say a six month basis, and we can look at the proportion of their expenditure that is on cannabis and therefore, model the other states, the other provinces and the other countries. So, we’re expecting to see this inception hyper growth and maturity repeat itself time and time again throughout the United States, Canada and the rest of the world. Now, over to Tom to talk about our market matrix.


Cannabis growth indicator market martix


Tom Adams: Thank you guys, and yeah, jumping into it here Troy, Roy is right. The number of adults consuming cannabis is key. It’s a percent that ranges across just the US alone wildly from four or five percent in Iowa and Alabama, to the mid-teens in Oregon and Maine for example. But beyond that, it’s really government policy that has the biggest impact on how many of those consumers are going to move from buying illicitly where they currently do, to the legal market and the stores that are getting licensed.

Tom Adams: In the context of those government policies, a couple of key things have emerged that we’re basically putting into a matrix and trying to quantify these numbers such that we could use that in our forecasting. So, licensing and taxation, taxation rates a key one. The costs the government impose on legal businesses can make competing with the extra-legal market very tough as we are seeing in California at this point.

Tom Adams: Another key area is the consumption types they allow. Some markets are flower only. Some are no edibles are allowed, for example in Canada until the fourth quarter of this year, so that’s factored in. Then perhaps most importantly, really the breadth of retail coverage is a key factor in growing legal sales. Another major issue in California where there’s just not, whole sections of the state don’t have stores at this point.


Cannabis Growth Indicator Matrix


Tom Adams: So, for this year’s forecast, we updated, developed and are now going to keep updated a growth indicator matrix, we’re calling it, that quantifies all these factors and here’s how a couple of the states line up by that matrix. Some of the top rated states, and some of the lowest rated states. Some are no surprise. Louisiana, low rated, it’s requiring just two universities to grow all the cannabis in the state, and only a handful of pharmacies can sell it.

Tom Adams: New York has severely limited the number of dispensaries and what they can sell and it’s talking about sky high tax rates as it talks about legalizing adult use, and we saw how that’s gone in California. The western states are generally licensing store more liberally and they are more permissive in their consumption regulations. There’s a couple of huge surprises here too though.

Tom Adams: California of course, the center of cannabis culture sort of for decades, since the hippy era, has a low rating by this matrix. It’s imposed an 80% tax of regulatory cost load on legal prices. There’s less than 700 stores in a giant state which 40 million population.

Tom Adams: And then, another big surprise, Oklahoma, among the highest rated of states and it already has for example 500 stores. Almost as many as California, real low barriers to entry on the regulatory front and patients can smoke cannabis anywhere cigarettes are allowed. That’s perhaps a unique factor of the Oklahoma market.


Oklahoma vs Ohio Cannabis Sales Case Study


Tom Adams: So, on the next slide, we see how that kind of pans out. Very obviously in known data from states that are disclosing their sales, even though Ohio dwarfs Oklahoma both in population and per capita income, it’s generated much less revenue than Oklahoma in the early days of medical use, in both states. Both states launched in the fourth quarter of 2018.

Tom Adams: So, we can already see that the impact of this, the fact that Ohio has application fees in the $100,000 to $200,000 range. Oklahoma’s are $2,500. Ohio has a cap unbelievably of ten stores for their 8.7 million adults. Oklahoma has 500 operating stores already opened and 1,100 licensed for opening. So, it’s no surprise that in the first three months, Ohio saw just three million dollars spent on medical cannabis, Oklahoma saw 12.4 million dollars spent.

Tom Adams: So, it’s interesting to see, when you’ve got real data and the matrix seems to be very predictive at this point, so we’re applying it to all the states where we’re producing estimates. Similar dynamics are playing out for example in Canada, which we can take a look at on the next slide.


Canada first ever provincial level cannabis forecast


Tom Adams: Really, Canada going adult legal, the highest profile event of 2018. October 17th will go down in history. The first G7 country to legalize cannabis. The timing of that’s interesting. It stands as almost exactly a hundred-year bookend to the 19th amendment passing in the US of A, that failed experiment in legislating human behavior, called alcohol prohibition. The drys lost that battle eventually of course, but the GM through Canada’s prohibition in 1937, and really what’s, the way I view this is that Canada’s driven a stake through the heart of that prohibition last year.

Tom Adams: We took the occasion to break it down and look at Canada for the first time that I’m aware of anywhere, on a province by province basis and it was fascinating. It shows a couple of things, a key one being I guess the headline is that prohibition’s going to die hard, all around the world, even in a country that’s treating things as liberally as Canada. Each province in Canada’s been given the right by the federal government there to kind of make the same mistakes the US states have made and they’re doing so in some cases.

Tom Adams: For example, by sharply limiting the number of stores. In some cases, like Quebec establishing a government monopoly as they have in the liquor business there. And it’s leading to some very anomalous situations that we can show in this next slide, where we kind of analyze population share versus share of the cannabis market in the initial year of 2018 and in the forecast here of 2024.


Similar Cannabis Growth Indicators Applied to Canadian Provinces


Tom Adams: So, what we can see here is that Quebec dramatically underperforming against it’s portion of the population. Whereas for example, Alberta over performing. So Quebec has 23% of the population of Canada, but just 6% of legal sales. Some of that’s just down to Quebec’s lower consumption rates overall. It’s got the lowest consumption rates in the country. But much of it’s tied to Alberta launching a free market approach, while Quebec adopted this liquor, government monopoly model at retail.

Tom Adams: Some of the problems kind of stretch across the country. The federal government’s given provincial governments a monopoly on the wholesale sector for example, and much leeway in setting supply chain rules, which partially accounts for the shortages that plagued the October launch and are now only slowly easing up. So, we’re forecasting a very bright future for cannabis legal market growth and a 41% compound annual rate of 5.2 billion in 2024, in the second largest market in the world, next to California. Most provinces in our model, as you can see here, moved toward their population suggested share of the market. Quebec and Nova Scotia being that ones that remain kind of under polling in cannabis sales.


Illinois Cannabis Market Summary


Troy Dayton: So, let’s take a look at the next slide and look at a case study of how the market matrix could be applied to individual states. Illinois of course being a state of great interest. Big Midwestern state, 9.4 million adults, just legalized medical. We’re moving towards that with a vote at the end of May. Only about 7% of consumers in Illinois consume monthly. That’s a low end number for US states. But still there are already 60 medical dispensaries, generated about $145 million in 2018. Critically, there’s been no limit on out of state ownership of licensed companies there, and there are many well financed players already operating there. Strong figures, sales so far have helped Illinois based, vertically integrated companies expand nationally. Cresco, Green Thumb, Grass Roots are multi-state operators already expanding outside of their home base.

Tom Adams: Here, Cresco was one of the companies that Troy was talking about that went public in Canada. Now operates in seven states. So it’s an interesting state. It’s had a reasonable licensing and tax rate situation as a medical state. No product restrictions and that’s a key thing. There’s no overhang of unlicensed competition in the major market of Chicago, the way there is in California’s major market of Los Angeles. And of course, there’s much to be decided about the adult use rules. The incumbents are lobbying hard to limit new competitors for example and that fewer stores would be a bad thing for growth. But the state is counting on hundreds of millions in tax and licensing revenue. There’s 170 million in Governor Pritzker’s 2020 budget alone in cannabis taxes planned for. So we’re expecting, as you’ll see on the next slide, a very bright future for Illinois driven by what we’ve assumed with be tax and compliance rates designed around getting lots of stores opened and generating lots of tax revenue. Although other states have made the opposite choice.


Illinois Goes Adult Use on Cannabis


Tom Adams: So, we think we’ll see Illinois grow robustly through at a 41% compound annual rate through 2024, becoming the fifth largest US market and the seventh largest market in the world, by 2024.


Illinois legal cannabis spending


Tom Adams: With all the substantial companies already operating there, we’re thinking Illinois becomes the same kind of Midwestern business hub in the cannabis industry that it is in lots of other industries. So, the matrix is proving very useful and we’re thinking intelligently about the future of all these markets.


International Cannabis Markets Legal Spending


Tom Adams: Let’s turn our attention to the world picture if you will. This slide is really the ex-North America world. Where we think the matrix is actually quite as applicable because we think this market’s going to remain very much a medical only market for years to come as you can see. Adult use just a tiny fraction of the market even at 2024. On the adult use front, of course, Uruguay led the way by voting to legalize adult cannabis in 2014. But it only launched sales in 2017 at a handful of pharmacies and only to adults willing to register with the federal government, interestingly, thereby assuring the health of the illicit trade there, in my view.

Tom Adams: Elsewhere of course, Switzerland allowed sales of 1% THC products in 2017. But we expect only really Mexico, Luxembourg and a few other small markets to go adult use by 2024. But never the less, we think growth overall as just a medical phenomenon will be huge in the international markets as a precursor to what Troy was talking about, an amazing growth curve in the out decades as cannabis goes legal around the world which we think it will.

Tom Adams: So, we have the international at this point, an international market forecast to grow to compound rate, growth rate of nearly 50%, from about 500 million to nearly 5.5 billion by 2024. In the countries around the world, an interesting case study on the next slide is Germany.


Germany Medical Cannabis Market


Tom Adams: Quickly becoming a leader in medical cannabis market development worldwide. Sales began in March of 2017, flower is available, not just pills, but flower available in 20,000 dispensaries. That generated about 79 million dollars in 2018, we think. The interesting thing in there’s still no domestic production in Germany and that’s creating an incredible import opportunity for countries around the world, being hotly pursued by the Canadian LPs, South American countries, even licensed Spanish growers of strictly medical cannabis are hot on the trail of importing into Germany.

Tom Adams: There’s already 180,000, or there were 180,000 prescriptions written in 2018. A huge number that we seem to think by the end of 2019 will be the biggest patient base outside of Canada which has about 314,000 patients. Big US states like Michigan, Florida, and Arizona which also number in the hundreds of thousands of patients. So, it’s really going to be kind of the central focus for the international markets in the near term, the German market.


German Medical Cannabis Market Legal Spending


Tom Adams: This is our view of it’s future on the next slide. We’ve got it on track to nearly triple this year and on to a billion four, in 2024, and a 61% compound rate. Other markets seem more likely to stick to a very limited pharma approach. So, true pharmaceuticals, not flower sales the way the Germans are adopting it. So, but even there, the epidialects decision and therefore the growing legitimacy of cannabis as a medicine, we think will drive pharma sales around the world. So, among countries that we think are likely to break 100 million in sales by 2024 are the UK, France, Italy, Spain, even Israel and a few other smaller countries. So, it’s happening albeit at a very medical only way, and happening around the world at this point with new countries announcing initiatives constantly. Perhaps the biggest surprise is Asia, at the end of last year, with both South Korea and Thailand agreeing that they were going to allow medical use of cannabis to their citizenry.


The science of Cannabis and cannabinoids


Tom Adams: So, we then close the book with this last slide. We took a look at the science of cannabinoids. And really for two reasons, first of all, although investment to date has been all about grow products and stores, so far. There’s really a second wave coming we think of cannabis investment around tech and IP. These are of course the big payoffs for investors in almost very consumer product category that’s come along, so we think the same will be try in cannabis. Basically, what’s going on is that companies are now allow to apply modern plant science, genetic science, and other technologies to a field that’s long been shot out from the radical developments of the past 60 years in those fields by federal prohibition. Now the door is open.

Tom Adams: Here’s a word cloud analysis of all the patents applied for or granted outside of China, which by the way, is eagerly after patents in this area. They’re focused on these kinds of concepts: methods, and extraction, and other cannabinoids you’ll see scattered throughout here. It’s really a fascinating, complicated, total cannabinoids world that companies with science on their mind are in pursuit of.

Tom Adams: The other reason to look at the science side of things, it’s really time, we think, to lay to rest the old canard that there’s no science around cannabis. That’s just ridiculous. Actually, the FDA first studied THC in the ’80s and declared it both safe and effective for use on, admittedly at that time, very limited use on certain diseases and admittedly, synthetic cannabinoids is what we’re talking about in that era. But, as the scientists like to say, a molecule is a molecule. The FDA’s continued to approve cannabinoids for use when they can pass the rigorous testing. It’s basically a fact that 10,000 years in human history has shown that cannabis is at least as efficacious as other plant-based treatments people are obviously using. Of course, it’s obvious to both users and paramedics that it’s safer than alcohol and many other things people consume recreationally.

Tom Adams: It’s just that science is having to play catch up in the same way that lawmakers are. Both are doing so, and it’s going to be an interesting and stop and start world as lawmakers grapple with how to legalize cannabis, but they’re doing it and that’s what makes us so bullish about the future of the business. With that, I think I’ll kick it back to Chris and see if there are any questions people would like to dig into in more detail.


The State of Legal Cannabis Markets


Subscribe to Our Newsletter