The State of Legal Marijuana Markets, Sixth Edition assesses the global economics, politics, and consumer trends of the cannabis industry
BOULDER, Colo. — June 28, 2018 — The United States’ legal cannabis market is projected to reach $11 billion in consumer spending in 2018 and more than $23 billion by 2022, according to the “The State of Legal Marijuana Markets, Sixth Edition” (SOLMM6) released today by Arcview Market Research in partnership with BDS Analytics. This growth has the potential to generate more than 467,000 full-time equivalent jobs in 2022.
According to SOLMM6, despite federal prohibition the U.S. legal cannabis industry experienced 31% growth in 2017 to reach $8.5 billion. Arcview forecasts that the continuing state-by-state roll-out of medical-use programs and then adult-use legalization, will bring nationwide spending in the U.S. to $23.4 billion in 2022, growing at a 22% compound annual growth rate over that five-year forecast period.
The Strengthening the Tenth Amendment Through Entrusting States (STATES) Act, introduced by a bipartisan group of Congressional sponsors June 7 and endorsed by President Trump June 8, would legalize that economic activity for the first time at the federal level.
“The end of marijuana prohibition is in sight and what that means for this market cannot be overstated,” said Troy Dayton, CEO of the Arcview Group. “There are billions of dollars in institutional capital chomping at the bit to take advantage of this shift, but so far haven’t found a major way in. This leaves a limited window for businesses to get a foothold and build value for liquidity events that might come sooner than any of us thought possible just a few months ago.”
“Uruguay and Canada are leading the way on adult-use legalization, and Germany broke barriers in 2017 on medical-use availability. This means worldwide spending on legal cannabis should hit $32 billion by 2022,” said Tom Adams, Editor-in-Chief at Arcview Market Research and Managing Director of BDS Analytics’ Industry Intelligence Division.
SOLMM6 provides graphs showing five-year forecasts of spending in 31 U.S. cannabis markets, plus Canada and 21 other countries, as well as a collective worldwide total spending forecasted through 2022. The forecast and the report are informed by in-depth data from BDS Analytics and other industry leaders, including:
- Product trends in the 800 million point-of-sale transactions from BDS Analytics’ GreenEdge™ Retail Sales Tracking Platform at retail stores in Colorado, Washington, Oregon, and California.
- Results of 17,000 consumer interviews in the United States and Canada conducted in 2017 and 2018 by BDS Analytics’ Consumer Insights Division.
- In-depth analysis of critical industry issues by industry-sector leaders CannaAdvisors, Cannasure, and Medicine Man Technologies, outlining key market opportunities and challenges facing potential cannabis industry investors.
Some key findings from the Sixth Edition of The State of Legal Marijuana Markets include:
- Now the clear market leader, the U.S. share of the market will diminish. The 29 states and the District of Columbia that make up today’s legal U.S. market represented 90% of the 2017 world market ($8.5 billion of a $9.5 billion world total) and are expected to be 85% of the 2018 world market ($11.0 billion of $12.9 billion total). But the roll-out of legal markets internationally is projected to shrink the U.S. share to 73% ($23.4 billion of $32.0 billion total) in 2022.
- The U.S. cannabis industry directly employed approximately 120,000 full-time equivalents (FTEs) in 2017. This is expected to grow to almost 330,000 FTEs in 2022. Total employment effect, including induced and indirect employment, will grow from 170,000 FTEs in 2017 to more than 467,000 FTEs in 2022.
- Canada and California are poised to capture 41% of the world market by 2022. Despite launch delays in Canada and regulatory challenges in California, these two newest adult-use markets are poised for a spending explosion – reaching combined revenue of $13.2 billion in 2022, or 41% of the worldwide market.
- Adult-use will prevail. In 2017 the medical cannabis market accounted for 71% of worldwide spending. In 2018 that will plummet to 41% as Nevada, California and Canada adult-use markets come online, and California’s $3 billion medical market transitions overnight to largely adult-use sales.
- About one in four adults in legal states choose cannabis. Adults ages 21+ years who report that they have consumed or used cannabis in the past 6 months range from 23% of California adults to 35% of Oregon adults in 2017.
- Products and Consumers are evolving. Flower’s share of sales at retail continued to decline in 2017. In Colorado, flower made up 47% of total sales by the final quarter of the year, as edibles and concentrate sales grew faster than flower.
The 400-plus page report (containing more than 260 data graphs/tables) is available from Arcview Market Research and BDS Analytics for $597, or as part of the Cannabis Intelligence Briefing Series subscription service for $1,975.
About Arcview Market Research:
Since 2011, Arcview Market Research has published over 20 reports analyzing and forecasting the rapidly evolving cannabis space. Arcview’s flagship annual report, The State of Legal Marijuana Markets has become the industry standard for market analysis and data in the sector. In 2017, Arcview Market Research partnered with BDS Analytics to add more robust point-of-sale data and consumer insights to its offerings. Arcview Market Research is a project of The Arcview Group. Founded in 2010, The Arcview Group is responsible for a number of groundbreaking ventures in the cannabis industry. The Arcview Investor Network includes more than 600 accredited investors who have put more than $190 million behind 180 companies. In 2015 Arcview became a partner in Canopy, the first seed-stage mentor-driven business accelerator. Arcview is also co-founder of Cannasure Insurance Services, the leading provider of business insurance to the cannabis industry. Forbes Magazine recently named Arcview among the top 5 financial firms in the cannabis sector.
About BDS Analytics:
Headquartered in Boulder, Colo., BDS Analytics provides businesses with comprehensive, actionable, and accurate cannabis market intelligence and consumer research. The company provides a holistic understanding of the cannabis market by producing insights from dispensary point-of-sale systems through its market-leading GreenEdgeTM platform, driving consumer research with its Cannabis Insights Group, and generating market-wide cannabis industry financial projections. To learn more about how you can utilize BDS Analytics’ superior market research, please visit www.bdsanalytics.com.
North 6th Agency (for BDS Analytics)